The democrats have reached Super Tuesday 2016. The battle for delegates will be fierce between establishment front-runner Hillary Clinton and revolutionary left-wing socialist Bernie Sanders. Democratic super Tuesday will be a nail biter. Hillary Clinton can effectively end the race with a resounding victory or Bernie Sanders may become the latest comeback kid with a strong showing spelling a long democratic primary season still ahead.
For explanations of delegate math, primary and caucus types and the like – have a look at our Republican Super Tuesday feature. It has all the details. Today, we will get straight on with the primaries, caucuses and the candidates for the democrats! Unlike the republican primaries and caucuses, the democrats generally use proportional awarding of delegates – meaning say a 60% victory in a state gives you around 60% of the delegates. As such, victory margins are more important in the Democratic primaries than in most Republican ones.
Democratic Super Tuesday
The Democratic Primary states on super tuesday 2016 are Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont and Virginia. There will be democratic caucuses in American Samoa, Colorado and Minnesota – check here for the latest primary opinion polls for Super Tuesday and beyond.
Combined Hillary has a big lead. The Super Delegates are heavily in her favor. But they can be swayed. To do so Bernie Sanders needs a commanding Super Tuesday. He might be happy to stay in the race to spread the socialist word, but if he is to be the nominee, the democratic super tuesday is his last chance for a comeback. He will win Vermont. He needs several more. Can Hillary fight him off? The polls says she can. But they have been wrong before.
The delegates and the states at stake:
Alabama Democratic Primary
53 delegates in an open primary.
Alabama Superdelegates: 7 – Currently Pledged: Clinton 3, Sanders 0
American Samoa Caucus
6 delegates in a closed caucus.
American Samoa Superdelegates: 5 – Currently Pledged: Clinton 4, Sanders 1
Arkansas Democratic Primary
32 delegates in an open primary.
Arkansas Superdelegates: 5 – Currently Clinton 5, Sanders 0
66 delegates in a closed caucus.
Colorado Superdelegates: 13 – Currently Pledged: Clinton 10, Sanders 0
Georgia Democratic Primary
102 delegates in an open primary.
Georgia Superdelegates: 15 – Currently Clinton 11, Sanders 0
Massachusetts Democratic Primary
91 delegates in an semi-closed primary.
Massachusetts Superdelegates: 25 – Currently Clinton 17, Sanders 1
77 delegates in a open caucus.
Minnesota Superdelegates: 16 – Currently Pledged: Clinton 11, Sanders 1
Oklahoma Democratic Primary
38 delegates in an semi-closed primary.
Oklahoma Superdelegates: 4 – Currently Clinton 1, Sanders 1
Tennessee Democratic Primary
67 delegates in an open primary.
Tennessee Superdelegates: 9 – Currently Clinton 6, Sanders 0
Texas Democratic Primary
222 delegates in an open primary.
Texas Superdelegates: 29 – Currently Clinton 17, Sanders 0
Vermont Democratic Primary
16 delegates in an open primary.
Tennessee Superdelegates: 10 – Currently Clinton 4, Sanders 2
Virginia Democratic Primary
95 delegates in an open primary.
Virginia Superdelegates: 14 – Currently Clinton 11, Sanders 0
The Democratic Candidates
Only two candidates are left in the democratic race. Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. As things stand all doubt about the eventual nominee could be wiped out on SEC Tuesday. Basically, the Nevada and South Carolina victories for Hillary Clinton has given her a momentum that if carried will give her a commanding lead after tuesday making further efforts from Bernie Sanders fruitless in terms of winning.
On the other hand, the democratic super tuesday is the perfect time for a resounding comeback from Bernie Sanders. If it is to happen. Several northern states are in play, including his home state Vermont. This is where he needs to show magnificent strength and then pull an upset or two. Then he is back in the running.
Democratic Super Tuesday is upon us. Who needs to win where? Is Bernie still in the running? Can Hillary do a clean sweep? Read our predictions below. The republicans might be louder. But the Democrats still have an interesting race. Follow it right here.
Need to win states: Make or break states for the candidate. Losing here is potentially campaign ending.
Should win states: States the candidate should win to be on track for the nomination according to their strengths and strategies
Favored to win states: States the candidate ought to win based on opinion polling and demographics
Might win states: States the candidate might grab on a good day
Look out for: The little important bits to keep an eye out for.
Need to win states: Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, Texas
Should win states: Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Virginia, Alabama, Colorado, Minnesota, Samoa
Favored to win states: All of them – except Vermont
Might win states:
Look out for: Basically Hillary Clinton is competitive everywhere except Vermont. Keep an eye on her numbers with blue collar Democrats, white males. She needs to do a clean sweep of the South. The more she grabs in the North, the shorter the race will be (Bernie Sanders might well stay in the race even if he is beaten badly, but the race for the win will be over. He will be staying to get his message out).
Need to win states: Vermont
Should win states: For a northern path to victory to work he should win Massachuchetts, Minnesota and be competitive in several other places like Colorado, Oklahoma and Virginia.
Favored to win states: Vermont
Might win states: On a good day Sanders picks up Oklahoma, Colorado, Massachuchetts, Minnesota and maybe even Georgia. Such a miraculous day would require serious momentum though. It isnt on the cards.
Look out for: Super Tuesday is decisive for the future of the Sanders campaign. Is he running to win or running to get his message out. He needs to beat all expectations to continue a run for the win. Otherwise, he can choose to drop out. Or stay to grab the podium. Look out for his performance in his favored Northern States. Check if he has finally broken into the black american voter segment – though, after his trashing in South Carolina that seems unlikely.
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