Post Super Tuesday analysis by Electomatic gives you the current state of the democratic race after an exciting night of voting.
Super Tuesday came an went. Hillary Clinton grabbed 7 wins whilst her competitor Bernie Sanders ran away with 4 victories. That may sound close. But essentially the race is over. Hillary Clinton has a commanding lead in delegates – with or without democratic superdelegates – and basically cant be caught unless a political earthquake happens.
Bernie Sanders did in fact do fairly well on Super Tuesday. He won a resounding home win in Vermont and grabbed wins in Colorado, Minnesota and Oklahoma too. That is actually better than expected based on polls. But still falls way short of being on track to win. For starters he lost in Massachuchetts, a state he should have won big. The State Of The Democratic Race is basically settled on Hillary Clinton.
Hillary Clinton won the south. With little competition. She grabbed 7 victories total. Most of them much bigger wins in terms of %s and delegates than Bernie Sanders managed. In reality she has won.
State Of The Democratic Race
Hillary Clinton has won in all but mathematical theory. She is further ahead than Barack Obama ever was in 2008 – against her. And the calendar ahead shows no obvious opportunities for Bernie Sanders to catch up. Bernie will likely keep pulling a win here and there, but given the proportional awarding of democratic delegates he would need blowouts in several state to make up ground. It will not happen.
So – should Hillary Clinton call for Bernie Sanders to withdraw from the race?
Definitely not! It is very much in Hillary Clintons interest to keep Bernie Sanders in the race. If he drops out she will have nobody to debate, no reason for the media to follow the democratic primaries, no news cycles of the candidates debating. To keep in the spotlight, keep the excitement alive and keep sharpening the arguments it is essential to keep Bernie Sanders competing.
And Bernie Sanders is in fact the perfect competitor in many ways. He is old and idealistic but never attacks her personally or with any level of political venom. He debates the issues. Rallies his troops and keeps the democratic side rolling. On top he has plenty of his own funds that he uses on democratic advertising on the issues – no negative ads or personal attacks on Hillary Clinton. It really could not be better for Hillary Clinton and if it starts looking like he might drop out, she really should sit down with Bernie Sanders and convince him to keep running – until endorsing her in May or June.
From now on it is all about the general election for Hillary Clinton. She needs to work on the youth vote that she has lost to Sanders. She needs to work on low income and low education voters that might be tempted by Donald Trump. She needs to work on improving her approval rating which isnt that much better than Donald Trumps. There is plenty to do. But it is all about the november general election.
Super Tuesday 2016 – Democratic Results
Alabama Democratic Primary
Hillary Clinton 77.8%
Bernie Sanders 19.2%
Arkansas Democratic Primary
Hillary Clinton 66.3%
Bernie Sanders 29.7%
Colorado Democratic Caucus
Bernie Sanders 58.9%
Hillary Clinton 40.4%
Georgia Democratic Primary
Hillary Clinton 71.3%
Bernie Sanders 28.2%
Massachusetts Democratic Primary
Hillary Clinton 50.1%
Bernie Sanders 48.7%
Minnesota Democratic Caucus
Bernie Sanders 61.6%
Hillary Clinton 38.4%
Oklahoma Democratic Primary
Bernie Sanders 51.9%
Hillary Clinton 41.5%
Tennessee Democratic Primary
Hillary Clinton 66.1%
Bernie Sanders 32.4%
Texas Democratic Primary
Hillary Clinton 65.2%
Bernie Sanders 33.2%
Oklahoma Democratic Primary
Bernie Sanders 86.1%
Hillary Clinton 13.6%
The South Carolina primary is in the rear view mirror for the republican candidates for president 2016. However, Jeb Bush took the bus(h) straight home after another disappointing result.
Basically, as we discussed prior to the primary the South Carolina republican primary was make or break for Jeb Bush – and he broke! After a ferocious campaign effort by Jeb Bush splashing out million of dollars on advertising, wheeling out his big brother George W Bush and even his mother all failed to pay off. Jeb Bush badly needed to at least tie up with Marco Rubio to have a way forward as the establishment candidate. Instead, Marco Rubio surged to an impressive 22% of the vote and a second place ahead of Ted Cruz – whilst Jeb Bush only just squeezed home a distant 4th place with 8%. Slightly ahead of John Kasich and Ben Carson.
Thus, Jeb Bush graciously suspended his campaign. Thanked his supporters. Went home. And turned the lights out for the Bush dynasty that has dominated American politics for decades.
Republican Primary Satire
Republican Primary Satire – Clown Car Parade
They started out with a colorful lineup of 17 hopeful Republican candidates for presidents. Since then all but 5 have dropped out. Donald Trump leads the race followed by Ted Cruz and Marco Rubi – with John Kasich and Ben Carson still in but hoping desperately for traction.
Welcome President Trump ?
Hillary Clinton looks like the democratic nominee to be. Bernie Sanders has gotten some traction with his far-left message, enthusiast youth supporting him and a fairly positive media coverage of his campaign. However, the Sanders numbers do not add up. He can stay in the race to get his message out, but it is basically more than difficult to see a path to victory for him. His base is too narrow. The states he has a chance of winning to few.
So, right now it is looking like Donald Trump versus Hillary Clinton in the general election. However. Donald Trump is far from a certain winner of the primaries yet. As the field of candidates narrow he needs to pick up support from those dropping out – and he is not first in line for it. Fivethirtyeight had an analysis showing him doing extremely poorly as second choice – meaning, he is less likely to pick up the majority of say the now homeless Jeb Bush voters, whereas Marco Rubio is in a better position to do so and thus closing the gap to Trump.
Much depends on Ted Cruz. He is very unlikely to actually win the nomination. He has a solid core of support among very conservative voters, evangelicals and so forth. But Trump eats into his base. And it is too narrow to begin with. But Ted Cruz is unlikely to drop out anytime soon – and when he does, where do his voters go ?
For now its all unknown. But a first clue will be found in the next contests. Does Rubio add approximately the volume of Jeb Bush´ to his column or are they going somewhere else? Does John Kasich gain traction or is he about to drop out too? Does Donald Trump break the 40% barrier ?
Time will tell. From what I see the field is narrowing too slowly and Donald Trump grabs solid portions of too many groups to make him an easy one to overtake – and Ted Cruz, John Kasich and Ben Carson are simply spoilers in a game that favors Donald Trump. If I was Donald Trump i would hurry up and send the Kasich super PAC a few million dollars, just to keep him going beyond super tuesday.
President Trump ? The Clinton vs Trump match up in polls are more less tied. Slightly tilting to Clinton usually. But, that is before the Republican party has to rally behind their nominee – even if his name is The Donald! Once that happens he might well have a shot at winning. Hillary is not a strong candidate and Trump has many sore points he can shamelessly attack.Read more
I was watching post New Hampshire speeches last night .. a quite bizarre experience indeed.
The Donald … he was obviously thrilled about his win, thanking a lot of seemingly random – mostly dead – people. Aside from that it was a strange stream-of-consciousness goldfish attention span speech … “Hey we are gonna make america great again, remember that, hey you overthere I love that sign, lets build a wall, you know i have experience building things, oh I should thank my brother, he´s upthere, dead, but we should rebuild the military so nobody messes with America ever again, omg lets make america great … and on and on …
Second in line came Kasich, who seemed like a very friendly and likeable guy. He spent his 30minutes speech telling us how we all need to hug a bit more. And that was as close as he got to a political idea or suggestion.
Rubio took the blame for his blatant failure in the primary and pointed the finger at himself for messing up at the debate by using robotic talking points over and over. He did this by using obvious talking points. And then rescinded and blamed the media the day after.
Hillary lost by 22 points, bigger than expected and gave an upbeat victory speech with Chelsea and Bill clapping happily in the background. She has clearly been told to try and look human, it really is a struggle for her.
…and finally a 74-old nerdy looking guy called Bernie with a 50yo career in Washington promised change and a socialist revolution, yelled at all the nasty insiders, promised that in future everything (university tuitions, health care and many other things) will be free. All paid for by taxing Wall Street. All his teen fans seemed to love it and for a while I feared he was gonna start doing Footloose dancing.Read more